If there’s one word that seems to define leadership (and the world!) right now, it’s uncertainty:
- Unclear markets.
- Shifting strategies.
- Evolving roles.
- New technology changing expectations faster than policies can keep up.
Not to mention obvious news cycles that can be hard to ignore, particularly if your job is all about working on line and keeping on top of news and trends. This can make it hard to focus on our jobs and get things done day-to-day.
But let’s focus on what we can control as managers and leaders.
For most of us, we’ll react to uncertainty in one of two ways:
- A knee jerk reaction which may or may not be a good one.
- Not doing anything and waiting for things to “settle down”.
The truth is that the best response is usually somewhere in the middle of these.
The (uncomfortable) truth is that it’s unlikely that things will settle down and it’s also unlikely that a knee jerk reaction will be the right one for the long-term.
Managers and leaders need to develop a very specific skill that you’ve probably never heard of:
Uncertainty tolerance.
Leaders who thrive aren’t the ones who try to eliminate uncertainty (this is never happening) – they’ll be the ones who learn to operate effectively within it.
In other words, learn to embrace the chaos.
The chaos will always exist to varying degrees, you may as well learn to embrace it.
Why uncertainty tolerance is a new, yet critical leadership skill
There are elements of being a leader that have always been important (and likely will continue to be important):
- Long term thinking and planning.
- Developing people.
- Clarity of communication.
- Balancing your job as a leader vs. day-to-day tasks i.e. staying productive.
These form the foundation of effective leadership whilst there are areas that are coming to the forefront in most industries and at most organisations where leaders need to:
- Make decisions without complete information.
- Reassure teams while still figuring things out themselves.
- Adapt plans quickly without losing credibility.
- Hold confidence and doubt at the same time.
Yes, it can be argued that these have always been present too, but I’d suggest that these have moved up the list in terms of importance over the last few years.
The thing that separates effective leaders from overwhelmed ones isn’t intelligence or even experience, it’s their ability to stay grounded and think clearly when things aren’t clear.
Overwhelmed leaders usually experience:
- Decision paralysis.
- Overreaction to short-term noise.
- Constant strategy changes (yes, your team notices this).
- Micromanagement (and this!)
- Anxiety spreading through teams.
Whereas effective leaders, when put under pressure demonstrate:
- Calm decision-making (and knowing when NOT to make a decision).
- Clear communication under pressure.
- Steady leadership presence.
- Trust from their teams.
- Better long-term outcomes.
In other words, your ability to sit with uncertainty directly affects how safe and confident your team feels.
They notice everything.
Honestly, they do. Even when remote.
Practical ways to build your uncertainty tolerance
People can make the mistake of thinking that this kind of skill is something taht comes naturally or doesn’t come naturally i.e. you’ve got it or you haven’t.
This isn’t completely true.
Yes, some people will appear to be naturals at being calm under pressure. It may well be a “natural” trait in that they have never proactively worked on it.
But that doesn’t mean that you can’t learn it or improve it.
Here are a few simple ways that you can do this.
1. Get it out of your head and name it
Instead of carrying vague uncertainty in your head, take a moment to name it by saying it out loud or writing it down.
If you’re struggling to put a name on it, ask yourself these questions:
- What exactly is unclear right now?
- What am I assuming without evidence?
- What’s within my control and what isn’t?
Clarity about what’s uncertain often reduces fear more than pretending certainty exists.
Plus, getting stuff out of your head and onto paper (or digital paper) can help on it’s own, even before you’ve done anything about it.
2. Split discomfort from danger
When something feels uncomfortable, take a moment and ask yourself:
“Is this actually risky, or just unfamiliar?”
The vast majority of situations that you experience in your day-to-day work will be emotionally led, not existential. Your body will probably react as if what you’re experiencing is unsafe, even when it isn’t.
Learn to pause, ask yourself the question above and try to learn the difference between risky or unfamiliar. This can change (in a positive way) how you respond.
3. Practice “good enough” decisions
I can always feel a bunch of you recoiling at the idea of accepting something that is “good enough” and not perfect. Don’t skip this one though, bear with me.
Perfection and certainty often go hand in hand.
Instead of trying to always achieve perfection, try asking yourself:
“Is this good enough given what we know right now?”
Yes, strive for perfection, strive for high standards. But try to see when it may not be possible or even necessary in order to move forward. You can always adjust later.
Waiting for perfect clarity usually costs more than making a reversible decision early.
4. Reduce your need to be right
This is hard. I’ll be honest, I struggle with it.
But our uncertainty tolerance increases when we allow ourselves to say things like:
- “I don’t know yet.”
- “This is our best call for now.”
- “We’ll review this as we learn more.”
Being confident about a direction isn’t going to always come from feeling certain about it. Instead, it can come from honesty and being prepared to change as you learn more.
Simple decision making frameworks for uncertain situations
Let’s finish with a few simple frameworks that you can make for effective decision making.
1. The Now / Next / Later framework
Instead of trying to solve everything at once:
- Now: What must we decide immediately?
- Next: What can wait until we have more information?
- Later: What’s not relevant yet?
This prevents overwhelm and keeps momentum moving, whilst acknowledging that you may need to wait for more information before making further progress.
2. Reversible vs. irreversible decisions
I’m a big fan of remembering type 1 and type 2 decision making in this context.
This basically comes down to asking yourself:
- Can we undo this decision if needed?
If yes, you can move faster, knowing that you can change things later if you have to.
If not, slow down a bit, get more input and make a more considered decision.
Spoiler: most decisions feel like they’re irreversible but they aren’t.
3. Principle based decisions
If data is limited, then you can fall back to your principles and values.
I can’t tell you what your principles or values should be, but I can give you some guidance by saying that you can ask yourself the following questions:
- What principles should guide this choice?
- What behaviour do we want to reinforce?
- What decision aligns best with our long-term intent?
This keeps decisions consistent even when circumstances change.
Finally, feeling uncertain isn’t a failure of your leadership. It’s simply a reflection of the environment in which you’re operating.
The leaders who struggle most are those waiting for certainty before acting.
The leaders who thrive are those who learn to stay grounded, thoughtful and human while things remain unclear.
